Is prostate cancer stage migration continuing for black men in the PSA era?

BACKGROUND: In the United States, disease-specific mortality from prostate cancer (PC) is highest among black men. While the introduction of widespread PSA testing has been associated with a downward stage migration, whether this trend continues in the late PSA era and for black men is unknown. The objective of our study was to evaluate current PC stage migration patterns in the United States by race. METHODS: The Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) registry was queried to obtain all cases of PC reported between 2000 and 2013. Year of diagnosis was categorized into 2000–2003, 2004–2007, 2008–2010 and 2011–2013. Predictors of distant stage PC at diagnosis were determined using logistic regression adjusted for year of diagnosis, age at diagnosis, SEER region and race. RESULTS: A total of 791 184 PC cases were identified. The cohort comprised 78.9% (n = 594 920) white and 14.1% (n = 106 133) black men. The stage at diagnosis was 83.3% localized, 12.0% regional and 4.7% distant. Age-adjusted incidence demonstrated a steady decline for black men in all time groups while white men had a stable incidence of distant disease between 2000 and 2013. In univariate analysis, black men in the 2004–2007 (OR 0.86 (0.81–0.93)) and 2008–2010 cohorts (OR 0.85 (0.79–0.91)) were less likely to be diagnosed with metastatic PC as compared with the 2000–2003 baseline cohort. In multivariate analysis, the 2004–2007 black cohort was less likely to be diagnosed with distant PC (OR 0.90 (0.84–0.97)). This trend was not observed in white men who in multivariate analysis had an increased risk of distant PC in the 2004–2007 (OR 1.08 (1.04–1.11)), 2008–2010 (OR 1.22 (1.18–1.27)) and 2011–2013 (OR 1.65 (1.59–1.71)) groups. CONCLUSIONS: PC downward stage migration continues in black men but not in white men. Discontinuation of PSA-based screening for PC could disproportionately affect black men.