Health Risks from On-Road Truck Emissions in Little Village, Chicago Pre- and Post-COVID Pandemic

Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) poses significant health risks, including increased mortality, and truck emissions are a major contributor to urban PM2.5 pollution. As freight activity intensifies in densely populated cities, understanding the impact of truck-related emissions on air quality and public health becomes critical, particularly in environmental justice communities. This thesis presents an integrated modeling framework, building upon the extant literature in the field of air pollution modeling and health impact assessment by applying U.S. EPA's modeling suite of MOVES5, AERMOD, and BenMAP-CE to quantify truck-related PM2.5 emissions, associated health outcomes, and economic impacts in Little Village, a Chicago neighborhood with historically high truck activity. The study compares conditions in 2019 and 2023 to evaluate changes before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Results show substantial reductions in truck-related PM2.5 emissions during this period. After incorporating relevant background concentrations, all 24-hour average PM2.5 levels in the studied months remained below the NAAQS short-term exposure limit of 35 µg/m³. However, maximum long-term average PM2.5 concentrations from AERMOD (excluding background) exceeded both the previous (12 µg/m³) and revised (9 µg/m³) NAAQS thresholds, indicating localized pollution hotspots. Although median truck-related long-term PM2.5 levels from AERMOD remained below regulatory limits, and showed a decreasing trend, several pockets within the community still exceeded safe levels. BenMAP grid outputs, which included background concentrations, further showed that even median long-term PM2.5 exposures surpassed both the old and new standards in 2019 and 2023. Health impact assessments estimate approximately 0.64 premature deaths annually among adults aged 35 and older attributable to truck-related PM2.5 exposure, corresponding to an annual economic burden of approximately $5.5 million. The findings imply that localized reductions in truck emissions may lead to improvements in air quality and public health, highlighting the importance of well-targeted emission control strategies, especially in environmental justice communities disproportionately burdened by freight-related pollution.