University of Illinois at Chicago
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ABBOTT-PRIMARY-2023.pdf (1.66 MB)

Predicting Mass Killings: Enhancing Theoretical Value of Models Through Complementary Techniques

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posted on 2023-12-01, 00:00 authored by Rebecca Abbott
This dissertation attempts to improve accuracy and utility of forecasts of mass killings by proposing two ways in which forecasts can be reconnected to theory. The first solution offered is using Confirmatory Factor Analyses (CFA) to build measures of popular predictors in forecasts. The second solution is a demonstration of four post-hoc methods for extracting insights into black box machine learning models. Results indicate that these two solutions can improve forecast accuracy as well as utility to researchers by connecting forecasts to theorized constructs.

History

Advisor

Amy Bailey

Department

Sociology

Degree Grantor

University of Illinois Chicago

Degree Level

  • Doctoral

Degree name

PhD, Doctor of Philosophy

Committee Member

Atef Said Christina DeJong Elena Zheleva Paul-Brian McInerney

Thesis type

application/pdf

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