Targeting Violence Prone Offenders: Examination of an Intelligence-Led Policing Strategy

Analyses were conducted examining an offender targeting strategy implemented in the Chicago Police Department as part of a citywide violence reduction strategy. From approximately June 2003 to November 2007, violence-prone offenders were targeted for enhanced police contact, based largely on gang-related intelligence. The analyses examined whether, following identification, police were able to successfully make contact with targeted offenders, and whether such contact could plausibly be attributed to the strategy. A sample of offenders targeted during 2005 or 2006 (N = 885) were compared to a matched sample of non-targeted offenders (N = 3,366). Matches were identified based on propensity scores, using nearest neighbor matching. Poisson regression was used to compare targeted and non-targeted offenders on 45 post-treatment police outcome measures, purposely designed to vary in terms of the expected impact that the strategy would have on their levels. Consistent with expectation, differences between targeted and non-targeted offenders were more likely to emerge significant for outcome measures that assessed discretionary police contact (contact for lesser infractions where the police could choose not to respond). The results are used to discuss intelligence-led police practices and the police role in yielding crime deterrence effects.