The Effect of Demographic Shifts and Nationalism on Demographic Group Threat

United States population projections suggest that White Americans will become less than half of the US population within the next 50 years, but do Christian Americans experience threat about their religion’s future decline through the same psychological processes as White Americans? Across three studies (N=1454), nationalism, support for diversity, and outgroup prejudice were assessed as mediators between political orientation and threat toward demographic shifts. Consistently across three studies, conservative White and Christian Americans were more likely to express nationalist sentiments than liberals, a pattern related to greater threat perceptions to demographic shifts. Liberal White and Christian Americans tended to respond with greater support for diversity than conservatives, a support that was affiliated more strongly with less perceived threat. Racial prejudice toward minority groups did not emerge as an explanatory variable for racial demographic shifts, but Christian prejudice toward Atheists did mediate between political orientation and religious demographic threat. Taken altogether, knowledge of a national increase in racial and religious diversity may affect White and Christian liberals and conservatives differently through the respective psychological pathways of nationalism and attitudes toward diversity.