The Impact of Humanitarian Aid on Internally Displaced Persons’ Movement: A Case Study in Syria

This research seeks to understand one of the factors involved in the movement of internally displaced persons (IDPs) within the context of a protracted conflict; specifically asking if and how the geographical distribution of humanitarian aid may impact IDP direction of movement and final destination. Although this research acknowledges that a number of factors play a role in IDPs’ movement, humanitarian aid will be the focus due to the lack of existing analysis of its role in IDP movement. Up until now, it has been commonly accepted within the humanitarian field that non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and local organizations looking to target IDPs direct their aid towards those locations with large populations of IDPs. Within this context, IDPs are the independent variable, while humanitarian aid is the dependent variable. However, this research hypothesizes that a feedback loop exists, in which the concentration of humanitarian aid itself becomes a factor attracting IDPs to a location, meaning IDPs’ relationship to humanitarian aid is much deeper and more complex than previously thought. Using quantitative data from the Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM) on displacement and IDP considerations inside Syria, findings indicated that IDPs do in fact consider a community’s access to humanitarian aid before moving there. Hot spot analysis conducted in ArcGIS found that 23 percent of the points resulting from the analysis indicated a hot spot with a p-value less than 0.05 (statistically significant with 95 percent confidence). Locations in Dara’a and Ar-Raqqa had the highest positive z-score results paired with a p-value of 0.0. Information regarding the layout of humanitarian aid in these area is scarce however and relies on subjective reports. Therefore, it can be concluded that humanitarian assistance is indeed affecting the movement of populations within Syria, which can result in long-term economic and social consequences, however, the exact extent of the relationship between aid and IDPs remains unclear.