Transition to Decentralized Energy in Cities through a Complex Systems Approach

Energy infrastructure systems, traditionally known for their reliability in providing energy access, are undergoing transformative changes due to recent advancements in technology and the rise of decentralized systems and renewable energy sources. This shift in energy systems is altering the dynamics of socio-technical interactions within urban environments and influencing consumer behavior, further impacting the energy landscape. Policymakers play a critical role in facilitating this transition, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of energy systems as complex socio-technical entities. This dissertation aims to equip stakeholders in the energy market with a valuable instrument for assessing the potential consequences of policies and technologies, providing guidance for urban planners in managing the transition. Using a modeling framework and methods such as causal loop diagramming, system dynamics, and graph theory, the research evaluates diverse strategies for stakeholders in the transition to decentralized energy systems. The study focuses on the state of Illinois (USA), which is committed to renewable energy reliance and climate neutrality by 2050. The policies and strategies in Illinois are compared and partly informed by the policies in European Union (Denmark, in particular), examining their energy planning strategies and the roles of various levels of government in shaping the landscape. The system dynamics model frames and evaluates several potential scenarios of the energy market development for the following decades, and the application of graph theory to a causal loop diagram quantitatively analyzes key variables driving and reinforcing the transition. The study identifies profit-driven approaches, technological progress, energy visibility, long-term strategic planning, and sustainable urban practices as crucial factors influencing the widespread adoption of decentralized energy systems. These findings contribute valuable insights to support the integration of decentralized grids into urban planning agendas and promote a sustainable transition to renewable energy reliance.